Three things that I learned about in this chapter and found interesting were overconfidence, belief perseverance, and intuition.
According to the book, overconfidence is the tendency to be more confident than correct - t overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgements. I find this topic interesting because sometimes I find myself struggling with this tendency. (Obviously I do not think that I am infallible or always correct, but the majority of the time I am fairly confident in my answers.) The book gave some really good examples to explain overconfidence too. Such as the one about whether or not absinthe was a liqueur or a precious stone. 60 percent of people answered the question correctly, however 75 percent felt confident in their answer. It also made the point how overconfidence or the inability to notice our potential to make errors can lead to serious consequences. However, there are positives to having overconfidence. People who are overconfident tend to be happier, have an easier time making tough decisions, and seem more credible than those who lack self confidence.
Belief perseverance according to the book is, clinging to one's initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has been discredited. I find this topic interesting because we all do this at times. This topic deals with our biases. The book gave an example about a controversial topic the death penalty. If you have two people and both sides and show them evidence backing up both claims; each person will only use the evidence that backs up their belief. The more evidence that we find to back up our claims the more we consider them true. In order to change the belief that someone has they will have to see compelling evidence to shatter their belief.
Intuition according to the book, an effortless, immediate, automatic feeling or thought, as contrasted with explicit, conscious reasoning. I found intuition to be fascinating because this allows us to make decisions without evening really thinking about them. The book states how this maybe a good thing or a bad thing depending on the situation. Some perils or reasons as to why intuition maybe wrong are: (pg. 380 Table 9.1) we are influenced by our present moods and by misinformation, we may form false memories, inflated self confidence in one's discernment based on the interview alone, our intuitive self-predictions can often go astray, and intuitively perceiving a relationship where none exists. Evidence of intuition's powers or reasons why it is good are: (pg. 380 Table 9.1) learning how to do something without knowing that ones knows, quick gut feelings that precede moral reasoning, and the sometimes spontaneous appearance of novel and valuable ideas. These are just a few things about intuition.
The reason why I picked these three points out for this blog is because after reading the chapter it made me think as to whether my judgements, beliefs, or notions were correct. Overall, I found this to be fascinating.
Friday, November 20, 2009
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You know, i really don't think it matters what our beliefs and opinions are, because that is exactly what they are. When you say that you don't think your judgments are correct, they are. Your judgements are your opinions and you always have a right to what you think.
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